When will we know if we've reached AGI?I recently teamed up with the ever-charming Maria Franzoni, to create a series of short Zoom interviews exploring the impact of AI, future trends, and the exciting opportunities ahead.

For machines to reach human-level intelligence (AGI – Artificial General Intelligence) is a huge deal. But, the Turing Test — can a machine convince a human it’s also human — isn’t enough.

My view: It’s about real-world Impact – how AI affects human jobs and drives technological progress for good! Tests like Steve Wozniak’s ‘Coffee Test’ suggest AGI (in robot form) should perform tasks like making coffee in a house it’s never been to, using reasoning to solve real-world problems.

Looking ahead, I see its arrival as something like the moon landing. We’ll massively overestimate its impact in the short term. And, massively underestimate its impacting the decade following. Intelligence will become a utility — just like electricity, water, and gas.

What’s your opinion? Does this view resonate, or will it be wildly different?